As attackers become more sophisticated, the risks associated with convoluted trust relationships and hidden entitlements are set to escalate, necessitating immediate attention from organisations. BeyondTrust is calling for a critical focus on the threat posed by obscure identity paths as part of its annual forevast of cybersecurity trends for 2025.
In 2025, cybercriminals will increasingly target these obscure identity paths—minor identity issues that can lead to significant security vulnerabilities. As attackers exploit convoluted trust relationships and lesser-known access points, organisations will need to reassess their identity and access management practices. This shift underscores the importance of maintaining robust identity hygiene to prevent lateral movement and privilege escalation attacks.
The report points to the evolving tactics of cybercriminals, who will seek to exploit these hidden vulnerabilities to gain privileged access within organisations. As traditional security measures often overlook these obscure paths, the need for a comprehensive approach to identity security becomes paramount. BeyondTrust experts emphasise that organisations must implement stringent controls to safeguard against these types of attacks, focusing on visibility and management of all access points.
Moreover, the rise of reverse identity theft complicates the landscape further. In this scenario, stolen breach data is misused to create fraudulent digital identities, blurring the lines between legitimate and malicious actors. As organisations grapple with distinguishing between these personas, the potential for identity-related incidents increases, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced identity verification processes.
The challenge is compounded by the predicted obsolescence of many systems as Microsoft phases out support for Windows 10 in late 2025. This transition will leave numerous outdated devices vulnerable to exploitation, further widening the attack surface for identity-based threats.
To combat these emerging risks, organisations must adopt a zero trust architecture that prioritises the inspection of all access points and enforces strict identity verification protocols. By understanding the complexities of obscure identity paths, organisations can better protect their sensitive data and prevent cybercriminals from exploiting these vulnerabilities.
BeyondTrust’s insights underscore the urgent need for organisations to focus on the threat of obscure identity paths. As attackers refine their strategies, a proactive approach to identity and access management will be essential to ensuring robust security in an increasingly complex digital landscape. By prioritising identity hygiene and visibility, organisations can safeguard against the evolving threat landscape and maintain the integrity of their systems.
Other predictions
Prediction #1: AI2 Bursts the Bubble
AI2, or the "Artificial Inflation" of Artificial Intelligence, is set to see its hype deflate across industries. While AI will remain useful for basic automation and workflows, much of the over-promised capabilities, particularly in security, will fall short in 2025. The focus will shift toward practical AI applications that enhance security without overwhelming organizations with marketing noise.
Prediction #2: Quantum Computing Threats Loom Large
Quantum computing will challenge existing cryptographic defenses, especially for large organizations. While NIST's post-quantum encryption standards were released in 2024, the transition to these new standards will be gradual. Larger enterprises, particularly in finance, must begin planning for this quantum shift to protect sensitive data.
Prediction #4: Reverse Identity Theft Takes Centre Stage
Expect a rise in reverse identity theft, where stolen breach data is improperly merged with additional personal information to create false digital identities. This trend will complicate identity security as organizations struggle to differentiate between legitimate and fraudulent personas.
Prediction #5: Planned Obsolescence Forces Hardware Overhaul
As Microsoft ends support for Windows 10 in late 2025, millions of systems will become obsolete. Many of these systems lack the hardware capabilities required to run Windows 11, pushing organizations toward hardware upgrades or alternative operating systems. The result will be a massive influx of outdated devices vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Prediction #6: Cyber Insurance Plays Catch-Up
Cyber insurance carriers will need to reassess policies as AI and quantum computing introduce new risks. In 2025, expect carriers to revise their terms to include exclusions related to AI and quantum risks, much like traditional exclusions for acts of war. This will push businesses to adopt new cyber-resilient practices to maintain insurance coverage.
Prediction #7: The End of Malware Dominance
Malware as a primary threat vector will decline as attackers increasingly exploit identity and access vulnerabilities. Organizations must shift their focus to protecting identities and reducing the blast radius of compromised accounts.
Prediction #8: Satellite Connectivity Disrupts Traditional Networks
With advances in satellite connectivity, traditional 5G and broadband networks will face stiff competition. This shift will introduce new attack surfaces as satellite communication becomes a more widespread alternative.
Which one do you think, BeyondTrust missed out?